This is stated in the November survey of the regional economic outlook (Regional Economic Prospects), published by the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development. It says that the Moldovan economy returned to the modest growth in the I half of 2016: GDP grew by 1.3%, thanks to consumer household’s activity.

The gross fixed capital formation and the exports in real terms of goods and services fell. The decline of exports in dollar terms and the reduction in remittances contributed to lower trade deficit. Tighter fiscal and monetary policy returned inflation to single digits and ensured the stability of the official reserves (covering 6 months of imports). The reduced inflation pressure allowed to gradually loosen its monetary policy, since February 2016, InfoMarket Daily writes.

According to the EBRD, the national debt will grow significantly, mainly due to the liquidity support of the three banks affected by fraud, and liquidated in 2015. As of August 2016, the three largest banks in Moldova remained under the control of a special National Bank due to the concerns about the lack of transparency of their respective owners, connected lending, weak corporate governance and poor quality of the portfolios.

It is noted that a preliminary agreement of the Government of Moldova on a new program with the IMF (about $ 180 million, which is equivalent to 3% of GDP) was achieved in July 2016, the approval of which depends on the execution by the authorities of the Moldovan Republic of the provisional measures. This event helped to unlock the first tranche of budget support from Romania in the amount of 60 million Euros, provided in August 2016.

It is expected that the approval and the implementation of the IMF program will unlock a new international budgetary support provided to Moldova by other donors.

According to EBRD forecasts, the economic growth in Moldova in 2016 will reach 1.5%, in 2017 - 2.5%. Let us remind that the Ministry of Economy of Moldova has improved the forecast for GDP growth in Moldova in 2016 from 1% to 2%, and for 2017 – from 2.5% to 3%. In October, the IMF has improved its forecast for the economic growth in Moldova for this year and the next year, raising the country's GDP growth forecast in 2016 from 0.5% to 2%, and for 2017 - from 2.5% to 3%. According to World Bank actualized forecasts, Moldova's GDP will grow by 2.2% in 2016, and in 2017-2018 the increase will be of 2.8-3.3%. The Independent Analytical Center Expert-Grup predicts an average GDP growth in the range of 1-3% in the coming years. The National Institute of Economic Research (INCE) expects that GDP growth in Moldova in 2016 will be of 2.5%.