Iulian CHIFU // Fast clarification of the right-wing's options
The electoral campaign was launched in the Republic of Moldova, even though the echoes are seen, especially, on the margins and in the central mass media and lesser in the territory. However, we are at the beginning of the presidential elections, which highlights certain problems of fairness and way of candidates' presentation: firstly, a relatively late date when is decided the validation of the candidates and the enrollment on the ballot, therefore the absence of the rule of casting lots of the positions on the ballot paper.
The biggest unknown thing is how many from those 25 candidates who announced the registration on the lists will succeed at collecting the needed signatures for the enlistment on the ballot and how many will respect the rules on the financing in order to avoid the elimination from the voting in the end? A case in point exists, since 2014, with "Our Party", so the technical and judicial component of the enrollment and organization of the electoral race are the most important in order to avoid the final elimination, and those presented in a complicated image referring to the credibility of the poll, as we have already seen.
However maybe the most important stake for the vote from October 30 and for the chances to become president in the second round is represented by the candidates that can enter this turn. Igor Dodon seems to be the favorite, but he shall avoid controversies and create space to attract also other votes. Dmitri Ciubasenko has a problem with absorbing the transfer made by the Party and Renato Usatai, a good performance would guarantee him the enrollment in second round, in the case that the rules which can lead to disqualification are respected.
Therefore, maybe the most important point is a candidate from the pro-European right-wing in the second round and the winner of the voting, respectively the extent of the joint statement to support a common candidate and, specifically his real support in the campaign by all the right-wing parties with all the forces after choosing the nominee with most chances to attract also the votes of the pro-Europeans in power at the second round of the poll.
The last public appearance of Andrei Nastase where he reaffirms the support of the single candidate is greeted. Such a posture is obligating him to keep his word; if no, he risks to take part with Iurie Leanca, the other "deserter" of the right-wing, a candidate that already is between chairs and has few chances of visibility except some photos with external persons. Whether he makes a last moment move, and also, with his party, standing for the common candidate, after the withdrawal from the race close to its ending. On the other hand, the uncertainty regarding the final decision is alarming, consequently the attempt to prolong the excitement.
In principle, the agreement for the single candidate of the right-wing makes sense to the extent that the selection is done quicker and in a more consolidated way. If the deadline of enlistment on the ballot expires, or if, for whatever reason, there are several candidates on the ballot, even if they retreated and announced support for a third party, there is a great chance that votes are wasted. Communication capacity is low enough and people's options - insufficiently channeled to the useful vote, that the waste of valuable votes is great, in the case there are more candidates on ballot papers.
It is true that several candidates - accompanying the race - create the opportunity to multiply the targets for opponents, allow an easier launch of diversions and scenarios for the role play of different partners. Nevertheless, this game has to stop before structuring the ballot. The clarity and work in the territory will be decisive. In addition, here will be played the chance of the pro-Europeans to possess the presidency of the Republic of Moldova and to maintain the pro-Western orientation of the country.
Let us assume that this is not done, that exists a belated support of the common candidate or does not exist at all this support. Maintaining two candidates from the right-wing in the race, whatever are the results of the surveys, will determine the move of the weight of the actual decision on a third party, PLDM, the one that does not have a candidate in the race. And here will take place, actually, another important point of the voting, when the burden of the decision falls back on Viorel Cibotaru, the president of PLDM. Obviously, the chances of the candidate decrease even more, as now the chances are lower than if there was a candidate outside the political spectrum, elected earlier and supported clearly by that initial four parties, participating at the negotiation: evidence of altruism, solidarity, rationality and pragmatism of the pro-European right-wing.
Somehow, the candidate chosen by PLDM, on the basis of the opinion poll, would be the one to mobilize the reliable, hopeful, emotional side of the right-wing electorate, moving the looser in the irrelevant zone of traitors and guilty ones for the big fiasco of the poll won by Igor Dodon or, even worse, for the absence of the right-wing nominee in the second round.
It is an interesting voting, especially, in point of perspective of the political parties and candidates of the pro-European right-wing also after the voting, beyond the strategical relevance of maintaining the pro-European vector. As an observer, I will look from the exterior, from the orchestra box as an connoisseur of the backstage games and experience in such kind of voting. Surely, not uninvolved, meaning that I will support undoubtedly the pro-Western, pro-European orientation and I will not bother telling and arguing that the election of Igor Dodon will bring instability and major turmoil in Chisinau after the elections.