These days we have witnessed an event long awaited by some, less by others, but everyone commented with eagerness. After long discussions, pressures and intrigues, on Saturday, September 15, 2016, was played a political wedding, how we did not see and hear for a long time in these parts. The PPDA leader, Andrei Nastase, and the leader of PAS, Maia Sandu swore unity and faith in the presidential elections of October 30, 2016 in front of followers, and also cameras. Although we knew about this day, before the event took place officially in the native village of Andrei Nastase: a small consolation needed by PPDA leader, because not him, but Maia Sandu is the single candidate.

As it is natural, a political alliance is one of interest and less love. The great absenties of the ceremony were the political parents of the protagonists. Some are abroad (but not at work, of course!), others here in the country, but all the parts - a common trait that probably unites - with sentences issued by the courts ... 

Rock solid marriage ... pardon me: State solid marriage! - Wished to the new political couple close friends in the hope that it will find a place for them in this building. However, as happens in such cases, not everyone involved in this did not love the prenuptial contract provisions. Some statements reveal frustrations from Andrei Nastase's supporters. Anyway, where has been seen in this lands such a large event without comments and unsatisfied people? ... We can only wish to this tandem, fresh formed, a honeymoon equal to their love that we've seen they carry for each other ...

The designation of PAS leader, Maia Sandu, as single candidate of the three parties changes the balance of power between candidates. As promised, the PPDA leader, Andrei Nastase will remove his name from the lists. Probably, most of his followers will vote in the first round, Maia Sandu, the rest - for one of the other populists. However, will that be enough for accession to the second round? Hard to say. A very little time is left before the elections. It depends on the message and the performance of the candidate, but also on the mobilization of the staff. In the second round - if, of course, manages to get there - Maia Sandu is credited with big chances in front of Igor Dodon. If she will manage to come up with a moderate and constructive message, then she could count on the votes of Iurie Leanca's followers, as well as much of Marian Lupu's voters. The votes of the Unionist candidates, but also of some independent nominees, in the second tour, also can migrate to the of PAS leader. Therefore, Maia Sandu has good chances to win the second round.

Marian Lupu is the candidate who continues to rise the most in polls. If things will continue like this (and we see that PD is seriously addressing to this campaign), then Lupu is likely to pass into the second round. In this case, the fate of the election will be determined in large part by PD leader's score in the first round. In the final showdown, Marian Lupu will be able to count on PPEM votes, the votes of unionists, the votes of Maia Sandu followers and the voters of independent candidates Valeriu Ghileţchi and Silvia Radu.

It is hard to say about the Platform ones. It is obvious that their leader, Andrei Nastase, would prefer as President the Socialist Dodon rather than Marian Lupu. The attempt to remove the geopolitical factor in electoral competition betrays Nastase's intention to urge followers to vote in favor of Dodon, in the case that in the second round will not accede Maia Sandu, but Marian Lupu. Perhaps some of his followers would follow the urging, but there will also be those who, if they decide to go to the polls, so they will not opt for Marian Lupu as against Igor Dodon, i.e. they will vote geopolitical.

For now it is certainly risky to pronounce ourselves on the second candidate who will pass the second round. The situation can change from day to day. We still cannot know what will be the impact of PDAA, PAS and PLDM decision to go with a single candidate. The sociological measurement results will come later, only around elections. If we are guided by the realities of the day, we can say that Marian Lupu has best chances in the first round and Maia Sandu in the second round.

Iurie Leanca is the candidate who deserves perhaps the most to be President. I refer to the competence, experience, support of which he has from the Western partners. That in the case the politics would be a competition where wins the best. We must recognize that Iurie Leanca and PPEM has mismanaged the good image and high ratings that the former prime minister had two years ago. At the beginning, we see him in intransigent opposition, along with those who dug the pit for him. Then - presumably at the urge of Western partners - we see him as well in opposition, but this time in a constructive one. Iurie Leanca's chances would have been much higher in this election if he was the unique candidate of government and constructive opposition. I think this was the chance of the current government to win without great emotions before the socialist leader.

Now there is pressure on the PPEM leader to yield in favor of Sandu Maia. To this purpose it is resorting to the authority of the European People President, Joseph Daul. Iurie Leanca's response leaves no room for interpretation: "I keep running for Moldova's presidency ... . The right wing candidates remained in the presidential race still have much to learn in order to lead the country." It is interesting to track the relation of Iurie Leanca and Maia Sandu, over recent years, with PLDM - the party which launched them in big politics. When he was in government, both of them were part of the PLDM team. Then both Leanca and Sandu, have formed their own parties. The PLDM remains, the whole band of supporters of the Greens (journalists, analysts, commentators, NGO's) are supporting hardly Maia Sandu and blames the former Liberal-Democrat Prime-Minister everywhere. That Iurie Leanca who, two years ago, was the chief of all ratings and the locomotive of PLDM in the last parliamentary elections. I'm wondering why?

The explanation is simple: Vlad Filat could not forgive Iurie Leanca for invitation of the Kroll company to investigate the banking theft. Heavy cases and arrests followed. Those left in the PLDM felt on themselves what it's like to manage a party without money coming from somewhere outside of the party. Instead, Maia Sandu's PAS site has enjoyed the full support of the former leader of the PLDM. At the time, the former Minister of Education benefited from a qualified advisory support offered by experts made available to the Government of Moldova from the development partners, since he was part of the government, and then as leader of PAS. Former president of the PLDM, Vlad Filat, saw in PAS's creation a satellite project in case the PLDM affairs will not go so well. That happened later. Now everything depends on how much Maia Sandu is independent of former Party chief and allies of the moment, the opponents of Vladimir Plahotniuc clans in the country and abroad. That's actually the question.

The most ferocious supporters of pro-European vector are unionists. Inspired by the data of surveys before the election, and relying on their intuition, the Liberals, led by their leader Mihai Ghimpu decided that in this campaign to go open with the unionist message. As did Ana Gutu and the leader "Right" of  Party. Although the surveys, even the most pessimistic ones, are indicating a large segment of union followers among citizens, this message is not transferred to the protagonists. Perhaps the union will have to wait for other campaigns and other players ...

Being focused on candidates that are credited with chances, we overlook the independent pnes. And it's a shame. Among independent candidates are met all the qualities of a head of state prerogatives within the limits stipulated by the Constitution. If in this campaign were not 12, but only two candidates - Valeriu Ghileţchi and Silvia Radu - we could say that we have a choice. Valeriu Ghileţchii, being in our politics for years, he managed to establish itself as a true politician: honest, upright and competent. The big surprise is Silvia Radu, who breathes new life into communication with citizens, but also in addressing public policy.

They are the candidates and parties in the current presidential elections, if analyzed from the perspective of geopolitics. There are only two weeks. This two weeks will be decisive. Even if the role and the place of President of the Republic of Moldova in the political system is modest, we see that the players stakes are, however, great. It is important that the main protagonists of election, who are gripped by competition fever and the risk, to remain in a correct and civilized communication. Because, in the end, when things will settle down, it is possible that someone, perhaps even the winner, to realize that, in fact, is not convinced that this is what he wanted and what he needs most. Therefore, even in politics it is better to leave room for "Hello". Especially if you're sure you're part of the same geopolitical game.