A major disturbance during this week among those involved once in the appointment of the candidate of the pro-European opposition for the presidential elections. The reason to analyze, unfortunately, not the chances and perspectives, but where it got or if it still exists or the project of the single candidate permanently disappeared. The candidate - should be added immediately - with maximum chances of reaching the second round and, depending on the personality and charisma, with credible chances to become the president.

For his designation, however, would be more important a qualitative analysis of the chances of those named by the involved political parties and not an ordinary quantitative evaluation by agreed surveys. This due to the chance to entail new voters in the second round, to attract as much as possible support from the voters of the pro-European vector, and last but not least, to avoid discreditable compromises is a necessary condition for the victory in the presidential elections. In addition, this studies can be found at the qualitative level of the sociological research, not in a quantitative study, I repeat, like a survey of public attitudes. Thankfully, my evaluation is that both studies would designate the same candidate - the one preferred by PLDM.

Firstly, the project started with 4 parties: PLDM, PPEM, PAS, PDA. However, from the beginning, Iurie Leanca or tried to steal the start, or to consider that he is special, by sending deputies, to replace him, at those reunions; so as, later, when he considered that he has no chance, to pass to the formula "between the camps": neither fish, nor fowl; both in power and in opposition, betraying, actually, the project. He did not sign anything, was not present at the meetings (leaving for 4 trips abroad), hence he benefits of some motives and excuses for the obvious accusation of betrayal. Then, Leanca glided to exceptionalism, tried to be recognized internationally, even posting a photo with Angela Merkel. A drop in the bucket, in front of the electorate too absorbed in the real problems, to pay attention to the subtle meaning, almost imperceptible, and whom the photos from the personal archive, which do not guarantee and do not say, basically, anything, left him cold.

I will stop here, of good fellowship. I know the one who makes his campaign, he is a good friend of mine and, from professional courtesy, I will ignore Leanca entirely in this campaign, because he is a marginal character in this race, who does not deserve attention. He could have done more to help the project of the single candidate, if he did not look that much in the mirror, saying, narcissistic: "Oh, how proud I am!"...

Then the game summed up to those three, PLDM (without a direct candidate), PAS and PPDA. Those three parties, with already changed chances of the single nominee project of the right-wing, after the disappearance of PPEM from the equation, signed a common statement (not an agreement!), which involves the withdrawal of one of the two candidates in the race at the start of the campaign. I have already said that the measure comes too late, when both names will be on the ballot and that will lead to the waste of the already reduced dowry of these votes.

At this point came between the break, practically obvious, even if untold: after posting the photo of Iurie Leanca next to the Chancellor Angela Merkel, with the supposed direct support that results from the communique of PPEM, Viorel Cibotaru wanted to compensate the situation, pointing out that PLDM is a member of the European people's family, not the party with the name European People's Party of Moldova that belongs to Leanca, so he arranged a meeting with Joseph Daul, EPP President, that marked the explicit support of a single candidate. However out of that two possible candidates, Cibotaru introduced only Maia Sandu, placed as the second in all the surveys so far, but "agreed by most members of the PLDM." However, Viorel Cibotaru, the PLDM president, and Maia Sandu reaffirmed that remain firmly engaged in the common declaration: that of establishing a single candidate based on surveys until October 1.

Andrei Nastase also marked a lateral step. Found on the third place in surveys (not approved for tie breaker) and without benefiting from the treatement offered by the EPP president, the leader of PDA,  hinted a possible exit from the game. He seems not to be accepting anymore the agreement of withdrawal from the race based on the results of the surveys. Nastase started to push a fatidic formula and without any relative content for the "national interest" as the supreme motivation, aside from what the opinion polls are showing, in order to launch his own candidature. Result? Even less chances of the right-wing candidate to enroll in the second round, plus the possibility of a severe confrontation for the same electorate and, implicitly, the increase of the PLDM support significance for Maia Sandu. 

 pentru lansarea propriei candidaturi. Rezultatul? Șanse și mai mici ale candidatului dreptei de a intra în turul doi, plus posibilitatea unei confruntări acute pentru același electorat și, implicit, creșterea semnificației sprijinului PLDM pentru Maia Sandu. The fact that seems to clearly determine the decision for the future presidential candidate of the united right opposition; in the case we are going to have such a candidate.

We hope the support will come and is going to be a real one for the project and for the future single candidate. As if to say that PDA will support explicitly and clearly Maia Sandu, will make campaign for her, in the case she is the joint candidate, in order to raise her chances to win. Anyway, the option to exit from the project undermines the chances of Andrei Nastase, who will leave, thus not respecting the declaration and leaving behind an electorate that hoped for a better chance and will migrate, eventually, to Maia Sandu. So, beyond the existing arrangements of Andrei Nastase, the candidacy buries him and removes him out of politics, with a multitude of accusations of not a man of his word and guilt for missing the chance of the single candidate, even with the blame - which he will share with Iurie Leanca - the project of failure to have a right-wing pro-European candidate as president. But I hope it will not get here.

As for the possibilities of enrolling into the second round and about the chances of the pro-Russian second candidate placed in the race, it is too early to talk about the possibility of two pro-Russian candidates in the second round. I have not seen accurate polls, validated by the CEC, but we notice, however, the absence of a run by Renato Usatâi through the country, sometimes very active near Ciubasenco for the needed image transfer. As to the rest, strategic vulnerabilities targeting a large number of actors, campaign kicks have not been given yet, any destructive revelation have not showed up. The fact is that those concerned risk to come out of politics before even entering it seriously, if they do not perform on October 30. In addition many donors and parties will put a padlock on the door after that, without those parties - launched as hope, let us not forget - coming again to catch also the general elections...